In 2009 Central America experienced its first military overthrow of a government for 16 years with the forced removal of Hoduran President Manuel Zelaya. For this reason the stability of other Latin American democracies has come under more scrutiny, with Guatemala, which shares a border with Honduras, one source of particular concern.
In its recently published report of its polling of public attitudes across Latin America, Latinobarometro reveals that Guatemalans have less faith in democracy than any other Latin American nation (with the possible - though improbable - exception of Cubans, who were not polled). Only 42% of Guatemalans think Democracy is the best system of Government, a similar number would always object to a military dictatorship and 36% think the Government should be able to shut down media outlets.
To an outsider, such apparent public distain for democracy might seem baffling and un-sophisticated. Yet it would be wrong to conclude that Guatemalans are inherently un-democratic by nature or collectively too stupid to assess alternative systems of Government. Rather, the findings of the Latinobarometro poll are more likely to reflect the weariness that Guatemalans feel towards a political system that lets them down on almost every meaningful measure. Guatemalans have learned to expect that their Governments will steal from them, squander their talents and utterly fail to protect them.
For many Guatemalans dizzied by the sheer number of thefts committed by the nation’s official guardians, the murder of lawyer Rodrigo Rosenberg was a clarifying symbol of the scale of betrayal that they feel. Although the Guatemalan Government blames Rosenberg’s death on gangs of criminals, Rosenberg himself recorded a video four days before his death in which he says “if you are watching this message,it is because I was assassinated by President Álvaro Colom, with help from Gustavo Alejos” (Colom’s private secretary). The reason Rosenberg claimed the Government wanted him dead was because he was fighting for justice for a former client, who Rosenberg said had been executed (along with his daughter) because he refused to collaborate with official corruption.
Whoever killed Rosenberg, it is unlikely that they will ever see justice. Guatemala is shamed by one of the world’s worst criminal justice systems, which guarantees violent criminals a 98% impunity rate at the same time that their mayhem condemns Guatemala to being one of the world’s 10 most dangerous countries. For many, the starkest expression of this lawlessness is the serial murder of 170 bus drivers during 2009 (often witnessed by up to 50 terrified passengers) - ordinary victims of criminal gangs trying to extort money from transportation companies.
The brutalising effect of this lawlessness transcends all sections of Guatemalan society, but is perhaps most deeply felt by the young. When working as a teacher in a middle class school in the Guatemalan highlands, I was struck by the amount of anxiety my students carried about la violencia, la delincuencia, las maras - (violence, delinquency and gangs).
Growing up with such elevated levels of fear is a profound enough developmental challenge as it is, yet most young Guatemalans are double whammied by being robbed of the education that might give them the skills and self-confidence to confront these problems. Mirroring Guatemala’s Latinobarometro ranking for low popular confidence in democracy, UNESCO places Guatemala stone last in Latin America for education according to its Education For All Development Index. Within Latin America (a region that itself spends only one fifth of the average OECD investment on educating each pupil), Guatemala has the lowest rates of adult literacy and secondary school enrollments and second lowest % of GNP spent on education.
In the context of all this grimness, it is unsurprising to learn that the German Ambassador described Guatemala as being “seconds from midnight from being a failed State.” He made that statement over a year ago and so far the minute hand has yet to call time on Guatemalan democracy. Despite the Latinobarometro poll, it is probable that few Guatemalans would welcome that happening. The only revolution that is likely to have widespread support would be replacing the current counterfeit democracy with the real deal: accountable government that protects its citizens and nurtures their talents. Whether this next decade brings much progress towards this far off dream being achieved is sadly, hard to predict.
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